Voting tactically on 12th December means voting for the candidate most likely to help deliver a people’s vote to stop Brexit, whatever your customary affiliation. In Norfolk, that means voting for either the Labour or Liberal Democrat candidate.
Remember, eyes on the main prize: we need a House of Commons that will vote for a People’s Vote.
You may need to overcome your anger with the Liberal Democrats’ performance in coalition, or a general distaste for Jeremy Corbyn. It’s worth it to make Brexit stop. In some cases these candidates are tied in second place, according to current predictions, and a decision awaits further developments. There are six websites goving advice on tactical voting. Two comparison sites enable you to see all their recommendations in one place. They are:
The individual sites are listed here and each gives some information about the basis of their recommendations.
The different sites use different methods to arrive at their recommendations. They vary in the weight they give to past voting patterns (General Elections in 2010, 2015, and 2017, the EU referendum in 2016, and the European Parliament Election in 2019), to current voting intentions in national opinion polls, and to local intelligence. Tactical.vote provides the most information about methodology. You can find out more about how the various forms of polling are done in the document Understanding-MRP-v2 .
At the time of writing (Sunday 8th December) the sites agree in 8 of the 9 Norfolk Constituencies. In seven constituencies they recommend Labour, and in North Norfolk they recommend Liberal Democrat.
The exception is Mid-Norfolk, where the recommendations are split evenly between LibDem and Labour. In the 2017 election the Conservatives held this seat with 59% of the votes.
The results are updated from time to time as new polling and local evidence comes in, so check the sites regularly for updates. This table shows the recommendations at the time of posting:
For information, a summary of the vote share in the general election of 2017 appears below.
If these patterns were to be repeated in 2019, it’s clear that if the Labour candidate stood down in North Norfolk, then Karen Ward (Liberal Democrat) would win. And if the Liberal Democrat stood down in Norwich North, then Karen Davis (Labour) would take the seat. We can but hope!
We can at least take action as individual voters. Vote tactically, watch Norfolk for Europe and join our local campaigning activities (canvassing in person or by telephone, leafleting), and make your views known on social media.
Remember, a majority of the people who say they will vote for Johnson and Brexit say they just want to stop the arguments and division. Despite Boris Johnson’s mantra of “get Brexit done”, agreeing his withdrawal deal is only the beginning of another 5 years at least of arguing about Brexit.
There is a quicker way. The Make It Stop campaign has been created by 20 local anti-Brexit groups to remind people of that. They have produced the information and materials needed to run an effective Make It Stop campaign. Just click their logo below…